“1 billion people in the developing world don’t have access
to clean drinking water. With this lack of clean water comes rampant disease,
sickness and death; it’s estimated that a child dies from water-related
illnesses every five minutes. The U.S’s
drought particularly in California has become a kind symbol of bad times to
come. The bad news is that as horrible as this is, things are actually about to
get a whole lot worse that many of us even expect. A 2012 National IntelligenceCouncil report predicts that: “The developing world, with its rapidly expanding
urban centers, will see the biggest increases in water demand, as its
population grows larger and more affluent.” Put simply, there’s a whole lot of
demand and very little supply. The report continues “Between now and 2040,
global demand for fresh water will increase, but the supply of fresh water will
not keep pace with demand…annual global water requirements will reach 6,900
billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2030, 40 percent above current sustainable water
supplies.”
That’s right: we’re looking at a global water shortfall of
roughly 40 percent, which will leave billions of people without adequate water.
The report warns that, over the next decade, water will increasingly become a
political asset as well as a weapon — something that countries with the
abilities to “to construct and support major water projects,” will use as
leverage against those that don’t. In this way, water will become a means by
which nations “obtain regional influence” and dominance over others. Those with
the means to do so will find themselves in a race to buy up as much water — and
therefore, as much political power — as possible. The report also warns that,
after the next decade, conflicts over water may not stop at political squabbling.
It says that “as water shortages become more acute beyond the next 10
years…future water shortages and a well-established pattern of water
problems…will aggravate regional tensions” between nations, leading to
“political conflict and even war.” The report goes on to suggest that
water-centered terrorism may become a trend. Considering that “the fear of
massive floods or loss of water resources would alarm the public,” radical
groups will be motivated to target infrastructure such as dams, desalinization
facilities and water pipelines. As water-related infrastructure projects become
“high-publicity targets,” terrorists will use them to garner media attention
and damage important public resources. The biggest threat to peace, however,
isn’t sabotaged dams but rather the threat of state failure, with countries
collapsing from within due to lack of water. The report suggests that water
scarcity will destabilize key political and economic systems, which may cause
countries already under considerable strain to buckle and implode.
Factors that may
contribute to this level of instability is the approximately 70 percent of the
world’s water supply is devoted to agriculture, which makes a water crisis a
huge threat to agricultural output and food markets. Due to the global
population boom of recent years, many nations have “over-pumped their
groundwater to satisfy growing food demand.” The report warns that, without
mitigation, nations risk exhausting their current water supplies. This would
result in a decline in food production, causing market failure and mass
starvation. Because hydropower is still an incredibly important means of generating
electricity, water shortages pose a huge threat to developing countries and
their infrastructure. Without sufficient hydropower, developing nations will
need to switch to an alternative source of energy, or face mass
destabilization. When combined with
poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and
weak political institutions— water shortages contribute to social disruptions
that can result in state failure.
The report warns against the what is perhaps the most common
solution suggested around the globe: water privatization. It is also water
privatization that is favored by many powerful political and corporate actors,
including the World Bank. The report warns that: “ Privatization can threaten
established use patterns by increasing the costs of water or transferring
ownership of water sources to private companies without proper local governance
structures. Privatization also makes water supply vulnerable to market forces
which can lead to instability, as people become unable to afford water and/or
become restive as they perceive their right to water being threatened.”
No comments:
Post a Comment