China's Shrinking Population

Demographers warn that China’s population will begin to shrink in the next decade, potentially derailing the world’s second-largest economy, with a far-reaching global impact. China’s birthrate last year was at its lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, with 15.23 million births, dramatically lower than the 21-to-23 million officials had expected.

By 2050 as much as a third of the country’s population will be made up of people over the age of 60, putting severe strain on state services and the children who bear the brunt of caring for elderly relatives.

Faced with a population that is shrinking and ageing, Chinese policymakers are attempting to engineer a baby boom after more than three decades of a Malthusian family planning regime better-known as the one-child policy. Central policy planners have loosened restrictions on family sizes, and now all married couples can have two children. There is talk of the limits being dropped altogether, and amid aggressive propaganda drives, local officials are experimenting with subsidies and incentives for parents.

But these efforts appear to be too little too late. Birthrates have fallen and are likely to continue to drop as parents decide against having more children. More young women are pushing back against state propaganda and family pressure, while improving education standards and income levels have delayed marriage and childbirth. Moreover, decades of the one-child policy have made single-child households the norm, experts say.

For residents in Shenyang, the largest city in Dongbei, in central Liaoning province, it’s obvious why few families are willing to have more children – the economy.

Rich in resources such as iron ore and coal, Dongbei was at the heart of the country’s heavy industry between the 1950s and 1970s. During the reform era, industries moved southward to the coastal regions, and the state-run companies that employed most Dongbei workers have struggled, causing a mass exodus to other parts of China.

“Shanghai, Guangzhou, all these cities are moving forward, but Shenyang has stayed in place. All the high-rises don’t change anything,” says Zhang Yang, 36, who works in purchasing for a local state-owned company. “Few people are having babies because the economy is so bad.”

During Dongbei’s heyday, Shenyang was the region’s economic hub, with blocks of factories lining its main street. Now those buildings have been replaced by high-rise apartments, banks and hotels while the factories have been relocated to a suburb outside the city. The new economic zone, the new home for these factories, is quiet.

The birthrate here is especially low, at 8.79 per 1,000 women, compared with the national average of 12.43 in 2017. The city is ageing quickly – a quarter of residents were above the age of 60 in 2017, and local population experts believe the city will soon overtake Shanghai to have China’s oldest populace.

Local governments across China are struggling to reverse the declines with subsidies, propaganda initiatives and new regulations on wokplace leave. In Xiantao, Hubei province, hospitals have offered to cover the costs of childbirth as well as give a 500 yuan (£60) subsidy for the first child and another 700 for the second. In Changsha, in southern China, an advertising campaign last year listed “1,001 reasons to have a baby”. Between 2016 and 2017, almost all provinces extended maternity leave.  Several provinces have banned abortions after 14 weeks, and Jiangxi province in the south requires the signature of three medical professionals before the procedure can be performed. More provinces have put in place obstacles to getting divorces, including a test or mandated cooling-off period. The All China Women’s Federation, a government-affiliated organisation, has been running a “beautiful families” campaign, praising women who serve as primary caretakers of their parents and children.

“China should have stopped the policy 28 years ago. Now it’s too late,” says Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin in Madison and a longtime critic of the family planning policies.

Birthrates in Dongbei, home to about 109 million people, have fallen steeply. The average number of children per woman was 0.9 in 2000 and 0.56 in 2015, according to Yi. That means the next generation will be a quarter of the size of the last one.

Researchers believe the national rate of births could fall further. Last year’s low rate surprised many. Liang Jianzhang, a professor of economics at Peking University, says he and his colleagues had expected births to peak in 2017 and begin falling after 2018.

“That peak apparently arrived in 2016, with births dropping ever since … What we can expect now is that the number of newborns will continue to shrink rapidly in 2019 and beyond,” he wrote in January. “It can be said with certainty that even though 2018 saw a low number of births, that number will not be surpassed for the next 100 years. China will never see more than 15 million newborns in the future,” he predicted.

Last year an article in the state-run People’s Daily said: “The birth of a baby is not only a matter of the family itself but also a state affair.”

“The party state sees the declining population as a real problem, and it’s women’s duty to respond to that,” says Jane Golley, an associate professor at Australian National University, who focuses on the Chinese economy and labour economics. “It’s a new era of control over women’s reproductive choices.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/02/china-population-control-two-child-policy