The government’s own internal analysis of its decision to cut universal credit from the start of October (by ending the temporary £20-per-week uplift introduced during the pandemic) says the impact will be “catastrophic”. The paper says:
A well-placed Whitehall official said the government’s own analysis highlighted the deep impact of reversing the change. “The internal modelling of ending the UC uplift is catastrophic. Homelessness and poverty are likely to rise, and food banks usage will soar. It could be the real disaster of the autumn.”
One minister warned that the political backlash over universal credit, which is claimed by 6m people, was likely to be more serious for prime minister Boris Johnson than the debate about social care.
“There’s no doubt that this is going to have a serious impact on thousands of people and colleagues are really worried, I think it will definitely eclipse social care as a political problem. It’s not just red wall MPs who are fearing a major backlash from the public.”