World demographics of the recent past are explicit, detailed and straightforward. The 20th century was the most rapid world population growth in human history. Although dramatic declines in mortality and fertility levels have taken place, the growth of world population continues but at a slower pace than the recent past. It is evident that world population will soon reach 8 billion and will continue to increase well after that demographic milestone.
In the late 1960s the growth rate of the world’s population peaked at 2.1 percent and has since declined to approximately half that level, or 1.1 percent. The annual addition to the world’s population also peaked in the late 1980s at nearly 93 million and is now about 82 million per year. The primary reason for lower levels of world population growth is the decline in fertility rates or the average number of births per woman.
At the beginning of the 20th century average global fertility was still about six births per woman. By 1950 world fertility had declined only slightly to five births per woman, with less than a handful of countries having rates below the replacement level. During the second half of the 20th century, however, birth rates dropped relatively rapidly across most countries, resulting in today’s world fertility level of about 2.5 births per woman.
Powerful forces, which continue to operate today, brought about the declines in fertility primarily during the second half of the 20th century. Particularly noteworthy among those forces were lower mortality, increased urbanization, widespread education, improvements in the status of women and modern contraceptives. Survival of the young, migration from rural areas to urban centers, education and employment of women contributed greatly to the desire of couples, especially women, to delay, space and limit childbearing.
The availability of the oral pill and other modern contraceptive methods permitted couples to gain control over the number and timing of their births. The ability for both women to determine the timing and number of births is certainly a major achievement having enormous demographic, social, economic and political consequences. Although mortality levels continue to play an important role in the growth of world population as it has throughout human history, fertility rates constitute the critical determinant of the future size of world population.
The populations of some 50 countries are projected to decline during the 21st century, according to the medium scenario. Moreover, 30 of those countries are expected to experience population declines of at least 20 percent over the current century. Japan, for example, is projected to have its population decline by 34 percent over the 21st century, from 128 million to 85 million. China, the largest population among this group of countries, is expected to see its population of 1.3 billion in 2000 drop to 1.0 billion by 2100, a decline of 20 percent. The most rapid population declines during the 21st century of approximately 50 percent are projected for Bulgaria, Latvia and Moldova.
If fertility rates continue their decline and move to the replacement level of about two births per woman, which is the United Nations medium variant, world population is projected to be 11.2 billion in 2100. A half child below the replacement level yields a world population of 7.3 billion, at the close of the century.
In the late 1960s the growth rate of the world’s population peaked at 2.1 percent and has since declined to approximately half that level, or 1.1 percent. The annual addition to the world’s population also peaked in the late 1980s at nearly 93 million and is now about 82 million per year. The primary reason for lower levels of world population growth is the decline in fertility rates or the average number of births per woman.
At the beginning of the 20th century average global fertility was still about six births per woman. By 1950 world fertility had declined only slightly to five births per woman, with less than a handful of countries having rates below the replacement level. During the second half of the 20th century, however, birth rates dropped relatively rapidly across most countries, resulting in today’s world fertility level of about 2.5 births per woman.
Powerful forces, which continue to operate today, brought about the declines in fertility primarily during the second half of the 20th century. Particularly noteworthy among those forces were lower mortality, increased urbanization, widespread education, improvements in the status of women and modern contraceptives. Survival of the young, migration from rural areas to urban centers, education and employment of women contributed greatly to the desire of couples, especially women, to delay, space and limit childbearing.
The availability of the oral pill and other modern contraceptive methods permitted couples to gain control over the number and timing of their births. The ability for both women to determine the timing and number of births is certainly a major achievement having enormous demographic, social, economic and political consequences. Although mortality levels continue to play an important role in the growth of world population as it has throughout human history, fertility rates constitute the critical determinant of the future size of world population.
The populations of some 50 countries are projected to decline during the 21st century, according to the medium scenario. Moreover, 30 of those countries are expected to experience population declines of at least 20 percent over the current century. Japan, for example, is projected to have its population decline by 34 percent over the 21st century, from 128 million to 85 million. China, the largest population among this group of countries, is expected to see its population of 1.3 billion in 2000 drop to 1.0 billion by 2100, a decline of 20 percent. The most rapid population declines during the 21st century of approximately 50 percent are projected for Bulgaria, Latvia and Moldova.
If fertility rates continue their decline and move to the replacement level of about two births per woman, which is the United Nations medium variant, world population is projected to be 11.2 billion in 2100. A half child below the replacement level yields a world population of 7.3 billion, at the close of the century.
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