"It pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Sadly, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the 5th consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe," said Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which is WMO's regional climate centre for East Africa.
The forecast for October to December issued at the Greater Horn of Africa Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum shows high chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the region. In particular, the drought affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are expected to receive significantly below normal rainfall totals through until the end of the year.
The October to December season contributes up to 70% of the annual total rainfall in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly in eastern Kenya. The rainfall deficits are likely to extend to parts of Eritrea, most of Uganda and also Tanzania.
While drought in the developed world means hose-pipe bans for the developing and undeveloped world, it is a matter of life and death.