The world’s media appears to be all cock-a-hoop about the
election victory of the National League for Democracy and Aung San Suu Kyi. But
the reality is that little will change in Myanmar.
The generals didn't suddenly wake up one day believing in
democracy. They wanted to end sanctions and their pariah status, but they
didn't want to give up control of the country. They knew that couldn't win an
election. The NLD are far too popular. Their solution? A constitution which has
the appearance of a democracy, but which still gives them ultimate control.
Newly elected MPs will be joined by 116 MPs, 25 percent of
the total, who are appointed by the head of the army. These MPs will choose one
of the two vice presidents, who will, like them, be a soldier. The head of the
Burmese army also gets to choose key government ministers. The Defense
Minister, Home Affairs Minister and Border Affairs Minister will all be serving
soldiers. This puts the armed forces outside of the control of the new
government. The new NLD government will also not have control over the police,
justice system, security services or issues in ethnic states. Without control
of the police or being able to create a truly independent judiciary, this is
another area where the NLD will be hamstrung. People could still be jailed for
their political beliefs or actions. The military has been committing horrific
human rights abuses against ethnic minorities in the country. Rape is used as a
weapon of war, farmers are tortured and executed, and villages are bombed and
burned. Legal experts say the abuses taking place meet the legal definition of
war crimes and crimes against humanity. An NLD government will be virtually
powerless to stop this.
An NLD government can't even use the military budget to try
to rein in the army. The army sets its own budget. The government has to make
do with the money left over. No surprise then, than military spending is higher
than health and education combined. Just in case an NLD government still tries
to implement policies the military doesn't like, above both parliament and
government is a National Defense and Security Council. Constitutionally, it is
the most powerful body in Burma. It has eleven members, six of whom come from
the military, so it has a built-in majority. It could overrule decisions made
by an NLD government. As if all these checks on the power of the government
were not enough, the military also inserted clauses in the constitution that
give it the right to retake power for vague and unspecified "national
security" and "national unity" reasons. Basically, any time they
like.
Given all this, it's not surprising that one of the top priorities
for Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy is constitutional
reform. The generals realized this as well. That's where the 25 percent of
seats reserved for them in parliament comes in to play. To change the
constitution, more than 75 percent of MPs have to vote for it. This means the
military have veto power over constitutional reform. No change unless they
decide they want it.
Despite all these problems, having an NLD government,
however hamstrung, will undoubtedly be better that what came before it. But it
isn't democracy, and it isn't acceptable. It can't be described as a step in a
transition process, because under the constitution, no further steps towards a
genuine democracy are possible. Myanmar now has a hybrid system of military
rule and democracy. It's democracy on a leash, good enough for much of the
international community who seek to strengthen their commercial ties with the
country. But a situation where the military are not under the control of the
government and where the military appoint key government ministers, would be
considered completely unacceptable in any Western country.
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