The report was published by the CNA (The Center for Naval Analyses) after a simulation was designed for officials from the US, Europe, Brazil, Africa and India showing a global crisis caused by “food price and supply swings amidst burgeoning population growth, rapid urbanization, severe weather events, and social unrest.” The scenario saw the massive spike in food prices sparked by a climate change-driven failure in “food basket regions” and the international community’s response being slow and not effective.
The US government contractor said the country is quietly preparing for food prices to spike by as much as nearly 400% the next eight years. One expert warned this would cause an "unprecedented epidemic of food riots."
The simulation started in the year 2020, with the world experiencing a time of economic stability. However, food prices steadily start to climb due to "weather-related disruptions to agricultural production". As a result, global crop product drops by 1%, affecting stock prices and leading to small food price increases. By 2023, further climate change in the form of droughts and heatwaves in Russia, India, China and Ukraine coincide with the cost of a barrel of oil jumping to over $100 (the current price is $45). A year later, the problems have peaked, with all of Europe and the US affected by massive food costs – approximately up by 395%. At this point, the world's 7.4 billion population could be doomed as riots are sparked in city streets over what could soon be considered a luxury item – something to eat.
Similar simulations have also produced similar results. Last year, a team at Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institutes found that based on current trends, there would be an "epidemic of food riots" in just over 20 years time.
Dr Aled Jones explained: "We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends – that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption."
However, the World Socialism Movement works for a global community working together to ensure that every one of those people has access to nutritious food. We envision a world where all nine-and-a-half billion of us are nourished, resources are conserved, and more human potential is realised.