China's Future?

In November China's Communist Party committed itself to the goal of reaching a "Xiao Kang" - or "moderately prosperous society" for China by 2020. The phrase "Xiao Kang" comes from the 3000 year old poem, the Book of Songs. It refers to an ideal state of stability and prosperity as described by Confucius where "the aged are cared for; the adults are given full play in their jobs and children are well-nourished and educated."

The Chinese poverty line is defined at $360 in annual income and there are still 70.17 million people living below that threshold - a number larger than Great Britain's total population. It should also be noted that the Chinese poverty line is way lower than the Western standard. If we follow the World Bank standard of $1.9 per day, the poverty population in China would exceed 200 million. If the "Xiao Kang" target isto be achieved over 10 million people must be taken out of poverty each year in the next five years.

According to IMF, for example, the per capita GDP of China is only one seventh of that of the U.S. It will take over 50 years to fill the gap between the two. While China is home to 22 per cent of world's population, it only has an only 2 per cent share of global spending on health care in comparison with the 13.6 per cent enjoyed by the U.S. Among the 10 world-class universities, eight are in the U.S. Beijing University, the best in China, ranks only 39th.