Claiming that he staged the coup to save Thailand from falling into a political abyss, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has promised to implement sweeping reforms and prepare the country for elections. But there have been no indications of serious progress on democratic development. On the contrary, the democratic space continues to shrink as the military entrenches itself in politics. The international community should not be misled by pledges of political reform and elections; these have never been a top priority of the generals. The professed aim of the government is to cleanse Thai politics of corruption, supposedly nurtured by the controversial regime of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. But this owes more to expediency than to real intentions. The underlying truth is that the military is here to stay, and is busy working on a governmental infrastructure that will allow it retain political power.
From writing an interim constitution that empowers the military, to appointing allies in the National Legislative Council, the National Reform Council and the Cabinet, the military has set out to fashion its own control network. Even ostensibly independent agencies have been drawn in. The National Anti-Corruption Commission has targeted key figures in the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai Party, in large part to prevent them returning to compete in elections. The result is clear: even if forced from the frontline of politics, the military will remain able to pull the strings of power through legal means.
Prayuth has stated he will not fix a time-line for future elections, although the government remains committed to an initial poll before the end of 2015. What is true is that large conglomerates, both Thai and foreign, are content with -- or even welcome -- military rule. Although the World Bank's has sharply revised forecasts for Thailand's growth this year, to just 1.5% from its April estimate of 3%.
Prayuth has relied on a mix of trusted generals and expert technocrats to deal with the hard parts of economic reforms. Even so, his reforms are strikingly similar to the approach of Thaksin and his sister, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. In effect, he has recycled populism a la Thaksin, but under the new guise of "Prayuthism." These policies -- which range from cash hand-outs to mega-infrastructure projects, new subsidies, "happiness festivals" and nationalist entertainment programs -- are aimed at shoring up popular support for the regime. Amid the slow pace of recovery in domestic consumption and exports, the agricultural sector continues to be vulnerable, and the government's confusing policies have exacerbated the problems. For example, it has promised cash to rice farmers to abandon plans for a second crop, in order to avoid overproduction. It is also trying to mollify angry rubber planters by injecting $1 billion to prop up falling prices. But these are short-term measures that only prolong the subsidy mentality and the agricultural sector's dependence on the state.
The government is facing a major test from a core group of supporters. Rubber farmers, who are concentrated in Thailand's poor southern and eastern provinces, have been part of the core support base for the Democrat Party, which is close to the military government. Democrat backers, known as the "yellow shirts," played a big part in protests in Bangkok that preceded the May 22 coup. On the other side of Thailand's political divide are rice farmers from the country's north, who support the "red shirt" Pheu Thai Party backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Both groups of farmers were beneficiaries of controversial subsidies during the government led by Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
The nation's rubber farmers are escalating pressure on the regime and threatening economically damaging protests unless action to raise their collapsing incomes is taken. Thailand is the world's biggest exporter of rubber, accounting for about a third of global production. However, prices have halved in little more than a year, causing deep unrest in rubber producing areas in the country's south. Two farmers have committed suicide, according to local media. Raw rubber sheet was fetching 48 baht ($1.47) per kilogram on Oct. 9, a dramatic slide from a peak of 181.9 baht in February 2011. There is an oversupply of the commodity amid slower than expected growth in manufactured exports from the region. The Rubber Economist, a U.K. consultancy, estimates that surplus production will amount to 650,000 tons this year. Thailand is the regional hub for the automotive industry, which uses large amounts of natural rubber for tires. Chaiyos Sincharoenkul, president of the Thailand Rubber Association, in September said that a steady decline in the commodity's value since October 2011 has affected more than 1 million farming families, accounting for over 6 million people. He also linked the falling prices to concerns over the impact of the European debt crisis and slowing economic growth in China.
Perk Lertwangpong, president of the Rubber Holders Cooperatives Federation of Thailand, told the Nikkei Asian Review "We are ready to protest again, and it will be bigger than last year," Perk said, referring to large-scale demonstrations by Thai rubber growers in August 2013. "This time we won't block the streets but will target the factories of rubber users," he said, noting that the farmers' anger was directed at bureaucrats and rubber buyers, who he claimed were colluding to drag the prices down. The rubber farmers' action group has also demanded that the government stop selling off its stockpile of 200,000 tons of rubber -- which is weighing on global prices -- and help producers move into more profitable businesses, such as manufacturing of rubber products. The government has temporarily halted sales of the stockpile. If Thailand proceeds with its plan to reduce rubber plantations and output, it will be following in the footsteps of Malaysia, which in 1988 had a 32% share of the global natural rubber market but has significantly reduced its reliance on the commodity. The country swapped rubber trees for alternative crops, including palm oil, and cut its rubber market share to just 6.9% last year.
Corruption allegations have surfaced against certain individuals in the government. General Preecha Chan-ocha, brother of Prayuth was revealed as unusually rich, with almost 90 million baht ($2.7 million) in his bank accounts and those of his wife. Preecha has been unable to explain the sources of his income. Other military and police officers also appear to have amassed large sums. Prayuth has urged Thais not to jump to conclusions about this wealth, noting it may have been inherited and by no means indicates corruption. The accumulation of great wealth by members of the Thai legislature has been far from unknown in the past. But the recent declarations suggest the current administration is no more ethical than the politicians it replaced.
"The army is defending its own interests. They are not going to make the same mistakes as they did in 1992 and 2006," said David Camroux, a senior lecturer in Asian Studies at Sciences Po in Paris, referring to years during which coups also took place but a civilian government was quickly restored. "Behind the apparent calm is turbulence ahead."
Prayuth chose to visit Myanmar for his first overseas tour. Myanmar's military commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, during an official trip to Bangkok in July, declared: "It was right [for the Thai generals] to seize power to protect national security and people's safety." Prayuth's return visit added a layer of legitimacy to his government.
In May in Pattani Province, south Thailand, 15 simultaneous explosions took place in or near convenience stores, gas stations and other facilities that killed or injured 66 people. The attacks were a grim reminder of the unpredictable violence that continues to plague the nation's predominantly Muslim southern region. A decade of periodical terror attacks in the region has claimed some 6,200 lives.
Thailand's three most southern provinces, two of which share a border with Malaysia, constitute an isolated pocket of Islam in an overwhelmingly Buddhist nation. In these areas, Muslims account for 90% of the population. The three southern Thai provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat once prospered as central parts of the former Sultanate of Pattani, or the Islamic Kingdom of Patani, founded in the 14th Century. The kingdom was conquered in the 18th century by Siam, as Thailand used to be known. The region was then incorporated into modern Thailand. Malaysia's independence from British colonial rule in 1963 inspired Muslims in southern Thailand to begin a separatist movement. Muslims angered by the Thaksin government's hardline stance toward them, began their armed conflict for independence in 2004. Islamic separatists have been carrying out attacks against military facilities, Buddhist temples, hotels and other targets with machine guns, car bombs and other assault weapons. Their attacks are indiscriminate and result in casualties of both Muslims and Buddhists. Muslim militants have grown increasingly hostile toward Buddhist education and staged a number of attacks on schoolteachers. Prayuth seems intent on continuing dialogue with the insurgents and is expected to ask for help when he meets with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak
FROM HERE and HERE
From writing an interim constitution that empowers the military, to appointing allies in the National Legislative Council, the National Reform Council and the Cabinet, the military has set out to fashion its own control network. Even ostensibly independent agencies have been drawn in. The National Anti-Corruption Commission has targeted key figures in the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai Party, in large part to prevent them returning to compete in elections. The result is clear: even if forced from the frontline of politics, the military will remain able to pull the strings of power through legal means.
Prayuth has stated he will not fix a time-line for future elections, although the government remains committed to an initial poll before the end of 2015. What is true is that large conglomerates, both Thai and foreign, are content with -- or even welcome -- military rule. Although the World Bank's has sharply revised forecasts for Thailand's growth this year, to just 1.5% from its April estimate of 3%.
Prayuth has relied on a mix of trusted generals and expert technocrats to deal with the hard parts of economic reforms. Even so, his reforms are strikingly similar to the approach of Thaksin and his sister, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. In effect, he has recycled populism a la Thaksin, but under the new guise of "Prayuthism." These policies -- which range from cash hand-outs to mega-infrastructure projects, new subsidies, "happiness festivals" and nationalist entertainment programs -- are aimed at shoring up popular support for the regime. Amid the slow pace of recovery in domestic consumption and exports, the agricultural sector continues to be vulnerable, and the government's confusing policies have exacerbated the problems. For example, it has promised cash to rice farmers to abandon plans for a second crop, in order to avoid overproduction. It is also trying to mollify angry rubber planters by injecting $1 billion to prop up falling prices. But these are short-term measures that only prolong the subsidy mentality and the agricultural sector's dependence on the state.
The government is facing a major test from a core group of supporters. Rubber farmers, who are concentrated in Thailand's poor southern and eastern provinces, have been part of the core support base for the Democrat Party, which is close to the military government. Democrat backers, known as the "yellow shirts," played a big part in protests in Bangkok that preceded the May 22 coup. On the other side of Thailand's political divide are rice farmers from the country's north, who support the "red shirt" Pheu Thai Party backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Both groups of farmers were beneficiaries of controversial subsidies during the government led by Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
The nation's rubber farmers are escalating pressure on the regime and threatening economically damaging protests unless action to raise their collapsing incomes is taken. Thailand is the world's biggest exporter of rubber, accounting for about a third of global production. However, prices have halved in little more than a year, causing deep unrest in rubber producing areas in the country's south. Two farmers have committed suicide, according to local media. Raw rubber sheet was fetching 48 baht ($1.47) per kilogram on Oct. 9, a dramatic slide from a peak of 181.9 baht in February 2011. There is an oversupply of the commodity amid slower than expected growth in manufactured exports from the region. The Rubber Economist, a U.K. consultancy, estimates that surplus production will amount to 650,000 tons this year. Thailand is the regional hub for the automotive industry, which uses large amounts of natural rubber for tires. Chaiyos Sincharoenkul, president of the Thailand Rubber Association, in September said that a steady decline in the commodity's value since October 2011 has affected more than 1 million farming families, accounting for over 6 million people. He also linked the falling prices to concerns over the impact of the European debt crisis and slowing economic growth in China.
Perk Lertwangpong, president of the Rubber Holders Cooperatives Federation of Thailand, told the Nikkei Asian Review "We are ready to protest again, and it will be bigger than last year," Perk said, referring to large-scale demonstrations by Thai rubber growers in August 2013. "This time we won't block the streets but will target the factories of rubber users," he said, noting that the farmers' anger was directed at bureaucrats and rubber buyers, who he claimed were colluding to drag the prices down. The rubber farmers' action group has also demanded that the government stop selling off its stockpile of 200,000 tons of rubber -- which is weighing on global prices -- and help producers move into more profitable businesses, such as manufacturing of rubber products. The government has temporarily halted sales of the stockpile. If Thailand proceeds with its plan to reduce rubber plantations and output, it will be following in the footsteps of Malaysia, which in 1988 had a 32% share of the global natural rubber market but has significantly reduced its reliance on the commodity. The country swapped rubber trees for alternative crops, including palm oil, and cut its rubber market share to just 6.9% last year.
Corruption allegations have surfaced against certain individuals in the government. General Preecha Chan-ocha, brother of Prayuth was revealed as unusually rich, with almost 90 million baht ($2.7 million) in his bank accounts and those of his wife. Preecha has been unable to explain the sources of his income. Other military and police officers also appear to have amassed large sums. Prayuth has urged Thais not to jump to conclusions about this wealth, noting it may have been inherited and by no means indicates corruption. The accumulation of great wealth by members of the Thai legislature has been far from unknown in the past. But the recent declarations suggest the current administration is no more ethical than the politicians it replaced.
"The army is defending its own interests. They are not going to make the same mistakes as they did in 1992 and 2006," said David Camroux, a senior lecturer in Asian Studies at Sciences Po in Paris, referring to years during which coups also took place but a civilian government was quickly restored. "Behind the apparent calm is turbulence ahead."
Prayuth chose to visit Myanmar for his first overseas tour. Myanmar's military commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, during an official trip to Bangkok in July, declared: "It was right [for the Thai generals] to seize power to protect national security and people's safety." Prayuth's return visit added a layer of legitimacy to his government.
In May in Pattani Province, south Thailand, 15 simultaneous explosions took place in or near convenience stores, gas stations and other facilities that killed or injured 66 people. The attacks were a grim reminder of the unpredictable violence that continues to plague the nation's predominantly Muslim southern region. A decade of periodical terror attacks in the region has claimed some 6,200 lives.
Thailand's three most southern provinces, two of which share a border with Malaysia, constitute an isolated pocket of Islam in an overwhelmingly Buddhist nation. In these areas, Muslims account for 90% of the population. The three southern Thai provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat once prospered as central parts of the former Sultanate of Pattani, or the Islamic Kingdom of Patani, founded in the 14th Century. The kingdom was conquered in the 18th century by Siam, as Thailand used to be known. The region was then incorporated into modern Thailand. Malaysia's independence from British colonial rule in 1963 inspired Muslims in southern Thailand to begin a separatist movement. Muslims angered by the Thaksin government's hardline stance toward them, began their armed conflict for independence in 2004. Islamic separatists have been carrying out attacks against military facilities, Buddhist temples, hotels and other targets with machine guns, car bombs and other assault weapons. Their attacks are indiscriminate and result in casualties of both Muslims and Buddhists. Muslim militants have grown increasingly hostile toward Buddhist education and staged a number of attacks on schoolteachers. Prayuth seems intent on continuing dialogue with the insurgents and is expected to ask for help when he meets with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak
FROM HERE and HERE
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