The Impact of War Spreads

  The ongoing war in Ukraine is likely to significantly drive up global food prices and worsen malnourishment in the Global South.

"The war in Ukraine not only has a dramatic impact on the lives of civilians but also has global repercussions," said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres this week. "Developing countries already in dire situations can simply not afford skyrocketing prices of food, fuel, and other essential goods."

"The global number of undernourished people could increase by eight to 13 million people in 2022 and 2023," says a new report by FAO, the global food agency. With both Ukraine and Russia's ability to produce and export food uncertain, a global supply gap "could push up international food and feed prices by 8% to 22% above their already elevated levels," it said.

FAO said up to 30% of Ukrainian wheat fields will not be harvested in the 2022 to 2023 season due to the violence.

"Cereal crops will be ready for harvest in June," said FAO Director General Qu Dongyu. "Whether farmers in Ukraine would be able to harvest them and deliver to the market is unclear. Massive population displacement has reduced the number of agricultural laborers and workers."

Qu continued, "The likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters of staple commodities could seriously escalate food insecurity globally, when international food and input prices are already high and volatile," said Qu. "The conflict could also constrain agricultural production and purchasing power in Ukraine, leading to increased food insecurity locally."

Qu said it was uncertain whether wealthy countries in the Global North would fill the gap caused by the war, with wheat supplies "already running low in Canada" and the U.S., Argentina, and other countries likely to limit exports in order to shore up domestic supplies.

Ukraine is the world's fifth-largest exporter of wheat products, while Russia is the largest. Combined, the two countries export more than a third of the world's grain products, including 19% of barley supplies, 14% of wheat, and 4% of maize. Russia also is the top exporter of fertilizer products, with many countries in Europe and Central Asia relying on Russia for more than half of their fertilizer supplies.

At least 50 countries rely on Ukraine or Russia for 30% or more of their wheat supplies, particularly in the Global South. In 2021, Eritrea's wheat imports came entirely from the two countries. According to the U.N. Development Program, before the war 66% of the Eritrean population was already unable to obtain adequate food. Lebanon, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, and Pakistan also source roughly half of their wheat supplies from either Ukraine or Russia.

UN Warns Russia's Attack on Ukraine Could Spike Global Food Prices by 22% (commondreams.org)