Climate Change and Political Crises

 Climate change is both "risk" and "threat multipliers". The Bay of Bengal coast, home to a quarter of the world's population, is a perfect example of the fight over fast-disappearing land. Disastrous floods, deadly heatwaves and devastating cyclones are taking a heavy toll in the Bay of Bengal region, which covers more than 2 million sq km (772,204 sq miles.) Rising sea levels, in particular, could result in land and infrastructure loss in the future, besides altering the location and allocation of strategic military assets, researchers said.

Military and civil conflicts could intensify along the Bay of Bengal coastline, fuelled by climate change-linked migration, land loss and displacement, researchers a report, by think-tanks the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute and India's Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, said.  The area is seeing frequent extreme weather, which combined with its strategic, social and economic fault-lines, makes it "fertile ground" for social friction and violence, they warned

The region was already dotted with conflicts over resources, identity and growing migration flows. The report pointed to conflicts between social groups, communities and the state over control of valuable but shrinking natural resources like land, forests, water and minerals. It also pointed to a dozen ethnic separatist movements triggered by conflict over resources in Northeast India.

"Climate change can widen socio-economic divides that in some cases can snowball into political instability and widen conflicts," said Angshuman Choudhury, one of the report authors. "Migration is a key link in this chain of consequences... The so-called 'insider versus outsider' conflicts are increasing," he said, referring to tensions between those on the move and their host communities."

Pointing to porous international borders cutting across countries that are home to socio-culturally similar groups, the report flagged growing conflicts triggered by migration, identifying "climate-induced" movement as a key driver. In India, anti-immigrant violence in northeast Assam state has been triggered by people moving across the India-Bangladesh border, while Bangladesh has seen local protests against Rohingya refugees from Myanmar.

Climate pressures could also aggravate land depletion, dispossession and degradation, fuelling economic and social insecurity among agrarian communities and ethnic minorities, leading to new phases of violent conflict, the report added.

"Climate change increases the risk of various types of violence and human insecurity," said Florian Krampe, director of the climate change and risk programme at SIPRI, a Swedish institute dedicated to research into conflict and disarmament.

Climate migration worsens conflicts in Bay of Bengal region (trust.org)