The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to cause the biggest fall in carbon dioxide emissions since World War Two but it will likely be short-lived and will not stop climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
The WMO expects a 6% drop in carbon emissions this year, an estimate on the high end of a range given by scientists, but the U.N. agency warned that it could be followed by even higher emissions growth than before the crisis.
“This drop of emissions by 6%, that’s unfortunately short-term good news,” WMO’s Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said. “In the most likely case we will easily go back to normal next year and there might even be a boost in emissions because some industries have been stopped.”
In fact, the drop is not even enough to get the world back on track to meet the target of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims for global temperature rise of no more than 1.5 degree above pre-industrial levels, Taalas said. That would require at least a 7% annual drop in emissions, he added. Carbon dioxide remains in the air for centuries so falls in emmissions do not immediately impact climate and would need to be sustained over a period to eventually do so.
2015-2019 was the warmest five-year period on record, with the global average temperature up 1.1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. So far this year, global temperatures on a monthly basis have been either the warmest or second warmest on record.
Taalas added that climate change was a “different magnitude of problem” compared with COVID-19 and urged governments to tackle it in the same spirit as they have the pandemic. “To be optimistic, we would learn from this example and use the same spirit to tackle the climate problem,” he said.
The WMO expects a 6% drop in carbon emissions this year, an estimate on the high end of a range given by scientists, but the U.N. agency warned that it could be followed by even higher emissions growth than before the crisis.
“This drop of emissions by 6%, that’s unfortunately short-term good news,” WMO’s Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said. “In the most likely case we will easily go back to normal next year and there might even be a boost in emissions because some industries have been stopped.”
In fact, the drop is not even enough to get the world back on track to meet the target of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims for global temperature rise of no more than 1.5 degree above pre-industrial levels, Taalas said. That would require at least a 7% annual drop in emissions, he added. Carbon dioxide remains in the air for centuries so falls in emmissions do not immediately impact climate and would need to be sustained over a period to eventually do so.
2015-2019 was the warmest five-year period on record, with the global average temperature up 1.1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. So far this year, global temperatures on a monthly basis have been either the warmest or second warmest on record.
Taalas added that climate change was a “different magnitude of problem” compared with COVID-19 and urged governments to tackle it in the same spirit as they have the pandemic. “To be optimistic, we would learn from this example and use the same spirit to tackle the climate problem,” he said.
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