"this is bad stuff"

Climate change could become a "catastrophic" threat to global security, as people lose their livelihoods, fall ill and battle over scarce water and food, a host of U.S. security, military and intelligence experts warned. 

Pressures from global warming could intensify political tensions, unrest and conflict, fuel violent extremism and break down government security systems, the experts said in a report by the Center of Climate and Security, a nonpartisan policy institute. 

War-torn countries in Africa and the Middle East were cited as most at risk, but industrialized regions are vulnerable, it said.

"Even at scenarios of low warming, each region of the world will face severe risks to national and global security in the next three decades," the report said. "Higher levels of warming will pose catastrophic, and likely irreversible, global security risks over the course of the 21st century."

The research  warned of displaced populations driven from their homes by rising heat, drought and dwindling water and food supplies. Disease would spread, and border security and infrastructure would break down as resources grow more scarce, fueling extremism, crime and human trafficking, it said.

"We're really looking at a bleak future if we see more and more countries become fragile," said Rod Schoonover, a former intelligence analyst and co-author of the report.

The experts assessed threats under two scenarios - if the planet warmed by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius or by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius - by the end of the century.

The U.N. has warned that if emissions are not drastically lowered, the average global temperature will increase by 4 degrees Celsius by then.

"I don't mean to be a doomsayer, but this is bad stuff," said retired Gen. Gordon Sullivan, a former U.S. Army chief of staff.

https://news.trust.org/item/20200224231243-vmgzt/