Immigration is seldom out of the news, but the past month has seen attention spike to new highs
as the removal of transitional controls on migration from Romania and
Bulgaria has sparked furious debate. Many headlines suggest the British
public is implacably opposed to migration, and demand radical action
from the government to bring down migrant numbers.
The true picture, however, is more complicated, as revealed in data
released today by the National Centre for Social Research from the 2013
British Social Attitudes survey, which is the most comprehensive
academic survey of British public attitudes.
That the public believes migration levels are too high is
indisputable: 77% of respondents said migration should be reduced, with
56% wanting it reduced by “a lot”. But it is important to put this
number in context. Pollsters have been asking British people this
question for almost exactly 50 years, and in practically every poll, a
hefty majority of 60-85% report that migration levels are too high.
The proportion demanding reductions to migration was as large in the
1980s, when net migration was negative, as it is now, when net migration
runs at 200,000 per year. So the British view of migration levels does
not respond to the actual migration level; it is like a thermometer
which says the temperature is “too hot” regardless of whether it is 30C
or -10C. It is not clear what this measure actually captures, but it
seems to be more like a general view of migrants in general rather than a
response to current levels. Most voters regard migration as a bad thing
to be avoided, so, just as any broccoli at all is “too much” for many
children, any migration at all is “too much” for many voters.
We can dig a little deeper into British views about migration by
moving the focus away from migration levels and towards migration
impacts. The survey also asked respondents whether they thought the
economic and cultural impact of migration had been positive or negative.
Focusing on the effects of migration, rather than the number of
migrants, reveals a very different picture.
Far from being a nation united in opposition to migration, Britain is
instead a country evenly divided. In our 2013 data, 48% of Britons saw
immigration as bad for the economy, while 52% saw it as neutral or good.
The split on culture is similar: 46% seeing the cultural impact of
migration as negative, and 54% regarding it as neutral or positive.
Remarkably, given the harsh economic climate and the barrage of negative
media attention, public perception of migration’s effects has improved
somewhat since 2011. The proportion rating the economic impact as
negative has dropped four points since 2011, while the proportion seeing
a negative cultural impact is down two.
While the British public is evenly split over the impact of
migration, attitudes are very polarised. The table below breaks down
attitudes by economic circumstances and cultural factors, and reveals
deep and enduring divides in views about immigration.
Click to enlarge
The majority of respondents who are well off economically, who had
some migrant heritage themselves (20% of our sample reported that they
or one of their parents were migrants), those who went to university and
those who report no prejudice against ethnic minorities are
consistently positive about the economic and cultural effects of
migration.
On the other side of the coin, economically struggling Britons, those
with no migrant heritage, those with no formal educational
qualifications and those who report some prejudice against ethnic
minorities are strongly negative about the effects migration is having
on the country. While the divides endure, it is also remarkable to see
that the improvement in views about migration is reflected in every
single social group, and that in many cases the biggest improvement
comes from those with the most negative views.
A closer look at the underlying attitudes thus reveals that the
headline picture of a British public passionately and implacably opposed
to migration is a misleading caricature. Instead, we find a citizenry
divided over the effects of a dramatic social change - while many
dislike it intensely, many others see it positively. Far from turning
against migration over the past two years of economic turmoil, Britons
from all walks of life have become somewhat more positive about it.
The difficulty for politicians trying to craft policy in this area is
that the importance different groups attach to immigration is not the
same. Those who accept or welcome immigration do not regard it as a
pressing issue, and rarely base their votes on it. For its opponents,
though, migration has become an all encompassing issue, and a principle
determinant of vote choice: in IPSOS-MORI’s regular polls, more voters rate migration as one of the top issues on the agenda
than any other issue except the economy, and almost all of these are
opponents. It is no coincidence that Nigel Farage’s UKIP has won its
strongest support from the very same groups the data reveals are most opposed to migration.
This difference in intensity may explain the common misconception
that the public is uniformly negative about immigration. The negative
voices are heard more loudly, and more frequently, which leads many to
conclude their views are more widespread than is in fact the case. This
helps those with the most negative views to drive the political agenda.
With universities, businesses and economic researchers worrying that
the current government’s restrictions to migration may be economically
harmful, perhaps the time has come for the silent, pragmatic majority to
speak up.
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