World Population to Half

“The probability that the size of the world’s population will start to shrink in the next twenty years is much higher than we initially expected,” says  James Pomeroy, an economist at HSBC. He predicts that the world’s population could reach just over 4 billion by the end of the century because of the fertility rate's sharp decline.

There are many reasons for the decline in fertility rates. The integration of women into the labor market delays the age at which they have their first child. The increase in real estate prices in rich countries limits the development of large families due to high costs. Increased education and better access to health care and contraceptive practices also play a role in families having fewer children. The pandemic has only accentuated the downward trend in births.

 In Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, the current fertility rate predicts that populations in these countries will be halved by the end of the century.

In Europe, James Pomeroy notes “At the current rate, the population will have halved by 2070, with the continent at risk of losing 400 million inhabitants by 2100. Similarly, if we continue the current trend, India’s population would rise to 1.54 billion in 2050, while China’s would fall to 1.17 billion. France would then have 62.3 million inhabitants and Germany 70.3 million.”

This projected decrease in population numbers is good news in the fight against climate change and the conservation of biodiversity.

It is not the same for all countries, however.

 “The decline in fertility rates is global, but for some countries, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, the level, although declining, allows for continued population growth,” explains James Pomeroy. 

Africa’s share of the world’s population will increase, with a large number of young people who will need to be integrated into the world of work, either locally or in developed or emerging countries with labor shortages.

 La population mondiale risque de diminuer de moitié d'ici à 2100 | Les Echos