To-day French voters go to the polls to choose between the "Socialist" Party’s Francois Hollande, and conservative incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy. Al Jazeera comments that the race is more about style than substance. On foreign policy rhetoric, analysts and observers tell Al Jazeera it is difficult to see the challenger making any major substantive changes, were he to be elected to office. Are they really that different, Hollande and Sarkozy? There does exist an appearance of divergence of attitude. Sarkozy will bring home French troops from Afghanistan in 2013. Hollande will speed up French disengagement effectively bringing troops home by the end of this year.
On African policy, Dr Christian Lequesne, the director for the Centre for International Studies and Research (CERI) at the Paris-based Sciences Po university, says that, while Hollande is employing the rhetoric of equality, French policy in its former colonies has an inertia of its own, one that "goes beyond the president...I’m not sure that Hollande will succeed in really imposing a new African policy." Nicholas Dungan, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council believes that the same reasoning that has led France to maintain its presence in the region - both militarily and economically - will apply to Hollande, were he to become president.
The story is similar when it comes to a reassessment of French involvement in NATO? "Nothing will happen," said Lequesne. Dungan agrees with that assessment of Hollande's likely policy, suggesting that the fundamentals of the French relationship with the United States are unlikely to change, because there are still shared interests over defence cooperation and counter-terrorism. The pullout from Afghanistan? The 12 month difference in withdrawal timelines from Afghanistan also effectively "amounts to being the same".
Another subject on which both candidates have consistently appeared on the same page is the recent French policy of increased interventionism in the Middle East. Hollande would adopt many of the same positions Sarkozy who led, along with the US, UK and Qatar efforts to create a mandate for intervention in Libya; and he has been at the forefront of calls for greater intervention in the Syrian crisis. Hollande and his party have supported both positions, and, while there have been minor disagreements, both left- and right-leaning mainstream parties in French politics have been supportive of the interventionism that Sarkozy has championed. "If you take this issue of military intervention outside Europe, you don't have a clear right-left cleavage in this country. Most of the Socialist members of the parliament were supportive when it came to the military operations in Libya, and on this issue, you don't have big cleavages between the two camps," Lequesne told Al Jazeera, adding that he did not expect Hollande to reverse existing French policies on this front.
On the issue of European economic policy Hollande has suggested that austerity drives are unlikely to succeed, unless they are accompanied by economic growth. Observers have, however, suggested that. while Hollande has championed a pro-growth position, his policies will likely look quite similar to Sarkozy's, were he to be elected. "He has no choice, to a certain extent, and his margin of manoeuvre is very weak," opined Lequesne. "Of course there is a difference in the discourse ... Hollande came back with the rhetoric of growth, but he knows in fact that if you want to have growth you need also to clean up public finances."
Should Hollande win the poll "Hollande’s foreign policy across the board would be, in reality, almost identical" Dungan concludes.
On foreign affairs, regardless of the winner - Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Source
On African policy, Dr Christian Lequesne, the director for the Centre for International Studies and Research (CERI) at the Paris-based Sciences Po university, says that, while Hollande is employing the rhetoric of equality, French policy in its former colonies has an inertia of its own, one that "goes beyond the president...I’m not sure that Hollande will succeed in really imposing a new African policy." Nicholas Dungan, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council believes that the same reasoning that has led France to maintain its presence in the region - both militarily and economically - will apply to Hollande, were he to become president.
The story is similar when it comes to a reassessment of French involvement in NATO? "Nothing will happen," said Lequesne. Dungan agrees with that assessment of Hollande's likely policy, suggesting that the fundamentals of the French relationship with the United States are unlikely to change, because there are still shared interests over defence cooperation and counter-terrorism. The pullout from Afghanistan? The 12 month difference in withdrawal timelines from Afghanistan also effectively "amounts to being the same".
Another subject on which both candidates have consistently appeared on the same page is the recent French policy of increased interventionism in the Middle East. Hollande would adopt many of the same positions Sarkozy who led, along with the US, UK and Qatar efforts to create a mandate for intervention in Libya; and he has been at the forefront of calls for greater intervention in the Syrian crisis. Hollande and his party have supported both positions, and, while there have been minor disagreements, both left- and right-leaning mainstream parties in French politics have been supportive of the interventionism that Sarkozy has championed. "If you take this issue of military intervention outside Europe, you don't have a clear right-left cleavage in this country. Most of the Socialist members of the parliament were supportive when it came to the military operations in Libya, and on this issue, you don't have big cleavages between the two camps," Lequesne told Al Jazeera, adding that he did not expect Hollande to reverse existing French policies on this front.
On the issue of European economic policy Hollande has suggested that austerity drives are unlikely to succeed, unless they are accompanied by economic growth. Observers have, however, suggested that. while Hollande has championed a pro-growth position, his policies will likely look quite similar to Sarkozy's, were he to be elected. "He has no choice, to a certain extent, and his margin of manoeuvre is very weak," opined Lequesne. "Of course there is a difference in the discourse ... Hollande came back with the rhetoric of growth, but he knows in fact that if you want to have growth you need also to clean up public finances."
Should Hollande win the poll "Hollande’s foreign policy across the board would be, in reality, almost identical" Dungan concludes.
On foreign affairs, regardless of the winner - Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Source
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