The world risks being cut off from Russian wheat. Russia has already burned through the entire quota. It will halt grain shipments to all but four former Soviet neighbors once the last cargo booked leaves the country.
While the ban will only last until farmers start harvesting in July, some other nearby nations have also restricted grain exports, threatening to reroute global trade and fuelling worries about food shortages and higher prices. Countries from Egypt to Turkey are trying to load up on imports while they still can, and Russian shippers have been feeding that demand. The window has closed fast. In just a few weeks, shippers booked out all of the 7 million-ton quota set through June. Egypt is taking an unusual step of importing a large amount of wheat during its own harvest to ensure it has enough to feed its population, many of whom live in poverty. Plus, the collapse in the energy market will likely take its toll on the economies of wheat importers like Algeria and Nigeria, which derive large amounts of income from oil.
There has been "a flurry of activity" recently, said Andrey Sizov Jr., managing director at consultant SovEcon in Moscow. "Buyers want to stock up because they realize they may not have the chance to do it later."
Russia last imposed an outright ban in 2010 after drought destroyed crops. Some researchers saw it as an indirect contributor to the Arab Spring uprisings. The memories of past food shortages have restarted the debate about food nationalism. Organizations such as the United Nations and European Union said the risk of social and political unrest is rising again as the pandemic spurs discontent, and urged against unjustified measures that could hurt food security and raise prices.
Drought is threatening crops across the region. If conditions in the Black Sea deteriorate further, that could prompt buyers around the world to stock up on supplies even more in the coming weeks, SovEcon said.
"The probability of that scenario is growing, given the current weather," SovEcon's Sizov said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/exports-russian-wheat-dry-stoking-food-security-concerns-200426172340195.html
While the ban will only last until farmers start harvesting in July, some other nearby nations have also restricted grain exports, threatening to reroute global trade and fuelling worries about food shortages and higher prices. Countries from Egypt to Turkey are trying to load up on imports while they still can, and Russian shippers have been feeding that demand. The window has closed fast. In just a few weeks, shippers booked out all of the 7 million-ton quota set through June. Egypt is taking an unusual step of importing a large amount of wheat during its own harvest to ensure it has enough to feed its population, many of whom live in poverty. Plus, the collapse in the energy market will likely take its toll on the economies of wheat importers like Algeria and Nigeria, which derive large amounts of income from oil.
There has been "a flurry of activity" recently, said Andrey Sizov Jr., managing director at consultant SovEcon in Moscow. "Buyers want to stock up because they realize they may not have the chance to do it later."
Russia last imposed an outright ban in 2010 after drought destroyed crops. Some researchers saw it as an indirect contributor to the Arab Spring uprisings. The memories of past food shortages have restarted the debate about food nationalism. Organizations such as the United Nations and European Union said the risk of social and political unrest is rising again as the pandemic spurs discontent, and urged against unjustified measures that could hurt food security and raise prices.
Drought is threatening crops across the region. If conditions in the Black Sea deteriorate further, that could prompt buyers around the world to stock up on supplies even more in the coming weeks, SovEcon said.
"The probability of that scenario is growing, given the current weather," SovEcon's Sizov said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/exports-russian-wheat-dry-stoking-food-security-concerns-200426172340195.html
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