Scientists are warning that climate change could soon reach a point of no return. And while this tipping point remains a source of disagreement in the scientific community, there is a consensus about the best way to prevent it: Rapidly cut global greenhouse emissions (GHG).
But the primary vehicle to achieve emission reductions, the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to keep warming below 2 C above pre-industrial levels — and preferably to limit temperature increase even further to 1.5 Celsius — is proving to be woefully inadequate.
Since the Paris accord was ratified in 2016, only six countries have actually reviewed their pledges, with four upping their cuts and two weakening their pledges. One problem, according to the UEF report, is that emerging economies China and India, who are among the world's biggest GHG emitters, have only pledged to reduce their emissions "intensity" relative to GDP by 2030. Ongoing economic growth will cause their emissions to increase in the coming decades, meaning these huge polluters have a long way to go to meet the Paris targets.
Part of the problem with the Paris pledges, according to Dr Niklas Höhne, a founding partner of the Germany-based NewClimate Institute, is that such non-binding "bottom-up" commitments are not consistent with the broader goals. As an antidote, he says that nations need to immediately set a timetable to reach and sustain net‐zero CO2 emissions.
"It's no longer about small pledges," Höhne said.
"Other than a handful of the pledges, namely the European Union and seven other countries, the pledges are quite inadequate," Sir Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and co-author of the report, told DW. According to Watson, the pledges won't keep temperatures from rising by 2 Celsius, much less the more ambitious target of 1.5 Celsius. "Simply, the pledges are far too little, too late," he added. "We wanted to push for much stronger pledges as soon as possible." Watson agrees that net zero emissions needs to be the target by 2050, which would mean electricity, at the least, should be 100% renewable.
In September, a "United in Science" report that synthesizes climate research by major partner organizations including UN Environment, the Global Carbon Project and the IPCC, said that the Paris pledges need to be tripled to avert catastrophic warming.
If implemented, current pledges will achieve closer to 3 C warming at the end of this century, according to Pep Canadell, Executive Director Global Carbon Project and a report co-author, told DW of Paris targets. He believes the chance to limit warming below 1.5 C has already passed and that unless we reach peak emissions before 2030, "the chances to stay below 2 C will be also largely lost."
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