The war drums are beating

The Military Balance 2018 report, produced by the IISS (International Institute of Strategic Studies) think-tank warns that while war between the great powers is not inevitable, Washington, Moscow, and Beijing are now systematically preparing for the possibility of conflict.

Dr John Chipman, IISS director-general and chief executive said: "The West no longer has a monopoly on world-leading defence innovation and production, or the funds to enable these. Indeed, China might be the one to leap ahead."

The Chinese leadership has been expanding its arsenal. In the air, this includes the Chengdu J-20 combat aircraft entering service in 2020, which means the US losing its monopoly on stealth aircraft. Meanwhile, its PL-15 extended-range air-to-air missile system will be equipped with electronically scanned radars – technology few other nations possess. China’s programme over the last 15 years means it has built more corvettes, destroyers, frigates, and submarines than Japan, India and South Korea combined. The total tonnage of its new warships and auxiliaries launched in the last four years alone, the report points out, is significantly greater than that of the entire French navy and is roughly equivalent to the total tonnage of the British Royal Navy.

The pace of militarisation is slower in the case of Russia partly due to funding and industrial issues. It is, however, benefiting from the experience of real-life combat in Syria and Ukraine. So Russia has gathered a lot of experience using new equipment, using new technologies, putting its personnel through different rotations on operations. It has an advantage there. 

IISS  director of defense and military analysis Bastian Giegerich, explained, "assumptions...have been that the West and the US own the air domain and can operate in it with great freedom. I think those days now are over." Giegerich went on to say, "We are seeing is a situation where the possibility of a great-power conflict is now probably higher than it was at any point in the past 20 years. That does not mean that a great-power conflict or a great-power military conflict is inevitable ... but it is more likely. And part of it is a result of Russia and China challenging the global predominance of the United States and systematically preparing for the possibility of conflict. Nuclear weapons of course are the ultimate deterrence, so to speak. And we've looked at the nuclear modernization programs of the three big powers — China, Russia and the US — and all of them are in the process of modernizing their nuclear forces."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/china-russia-us-military-challenge-western-allies-nato-strategy-war-military-balance-a8209771.html

http://www.dw.com/en/are-china-and-russia-challenging-us-military-dominance/a-42586553