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Friday, May 31, 2013

Buying a civil war


Although it would be a mistake to ascribe to all wars immediate economic causes  it can be generally accepted that they are more often than not fought over control of natural resources.

The civil war in Syria for some participants is no exception.

 Qatar has spent as much as $3bn over the past two years supporting the rebellion in Syria, far exceeding any other government. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Qatar has sent the most weapons deliveries to Syria, with more than 70 military cargo flights into neighbouring Turkey between April 2012 and March this year.Qatar provides generous packages to defectors (one estimate puts it at $50,000 a year for a defector and his family.) Many rebels in Syria’s Aleppo province received a  monthly salary of $150 courtesy of Qatar. Qatar is doing everything it can to promote bloodshed, death and destruction by using mercenaries who are paid handsomely. Regional rivals contend it is using its financial firepower simply to buy future influence and that it has ended up splintering Syria’s opposition. Against this backdrop Saudi Arabia has stepped up its involvement.

Why would Qatar want to become involved in Syria? Gas, or, rather, gas pipelines, to be exact.

The kingdom is a geographic prisoner in a small enclave on the Persian Gulf coast. It relies upon the export of LNG, because it is restricted by Saudi Arabia from building pipelines to distant markets. In 2009, the proposal of a pipeline to Europe through Saudi Arabia and Turkey to the Nabucco pipeline was considered, but Saudi Arabia thwarted Qatar and has blocked any overland expansion.

The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income. Pipelines are in place already in Turkey to receive the gas. Qatar has proposed a gas pipeline from the Gulf to Turkey in a sign the emirate is considering a further expansion of exports from the world's biggest gasfield after it finishes an ambitious programme to more than double its capacity to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG).

"We are eager to have a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey," Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the ruler of Qatar, said following talks with the Turkish president Abdullah Gul and the prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Only Assad is in the way. Qatar along with the Turks would like to remove Assad and install the Syrian Moslem Brotherhood. It is the best organized political movement in the chaotic society and can block Saudi Arabia’s efforts to install a more fanatical Wahhabi based regime. Once the Brotherhood is in power, the Emir’s broad connections with Brotherhood groups throughout the region should make it easy for him to find a friendly ear and an open hand in Damascus.

At the end, there will be contracts for the massive reconstruction and there will be the development of the gas fields. In any case, Assad must go. There is nothing personal; it is strictly business.
Extracted from an article here

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