In 1935 Hollywood filmed an adventure called China Seas which portrayed westerners having 'exotic' adventures in the Orient, but today there is a real possibility of war breaking out over this same expanse of sea. There are territorial disputes between China and Japan, and also between China, Vietnam, and India over the natural resources in the China Seas. The China Seas which comprise the East China Sea and the South China Sea are geopolitically very significant.
The South China Sea is the second most used sea lane in the world; over 50 percent of the world annual merchant fleet tonnage, and 10 million barrels of crude oil daily passes through the Straits of Malacca. The South China Sea has proven oil reserves of 28 billion barrels, and natural gas reserves of 266 trillion cubic feet. Vietnam begin oil development there in 1986 and this has yielded 2,000 tons of crude oil yielding $25 billion in revenue. China has begun oil exploration south east of Hong Kong. In 2011 India's state-run oil company signed an agreement with PetroVietnam for oil exploration in the South China Sea. This prompted the Chinese Foreign Ministry to say ‘we are opposed to any country engaging in oil and gas exploration and development activities in waters under China's jurisdiction.’
China and Japan are currently in a bitter dispute over claims to some uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. The dispute is actually about the natural gas resources in the East China Sea. In 1995 China discovered an undersea natural gas field which is estimated to hold reserves of 364 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The dispute has had a detrimental effect on Japan's economy. The Financial Times (22 November) wrote ‘the spat over a chain of islands in the East China Sea has deepened Japan's export-led downturn, potentially dragging the world's third largest economy into a technical recession.’ Citi estimates a 6 percent fall in export volumes in October 2012.
It is widely acknowledged that China will overtake the USA as the world's largest economy in the next few years. The USA has a 'security guarantee' with Japan which would put it in opposition to China over the East China Sea. Earlier this year President Obama announced a strategic 'rebalancing'; the Pivot to East Asia which militarily means America will deploy 60 percent of its Navy to the Asian Pacific region, and economically through the Trans Pacific Partnership aims to dismantle existing trade barriers.
The Financial Times (19 November) pointed out that ‘The US gets barely a tenth of its imported oil from the Middle East and that is set to shrink to zero by the time Mr Obama leaves office. China, on the other hand, gets half its oil from there, which will rise to three-quarters by 2020.’ It is acknowledged that the USA would like China to share the security burden in the Middle East region. Could China also get involved in war over resources in the Middle East?
Steve Clayton
The South China Sea is the second most used sea lane in the world; over 50 percent of the world annual merchant fleet tonnage, and 10 million barrels of crude oil daily passes through the Straits of Malacca. The South China Sea has proven oil reserves of 28 billion barrels, and natural gas reserves of 266 trillion cubic feet. Vietnam begin oil development there in 1986 and this has yielded 2,000 tons of crude oil yielding $25 billion in revenue. China has begun oil exploration south east of Hong Kong. In 2011 India's state-run oil company signed an agreement with PetroVietnam for oil exploration in the South China Sea. This prompted the Chinese Foreign Ministry to say ‘we are opposed to any country engaging in oil and gas exploration and development activities in waters under China's jurisdiction.’
China and Japan are currently in a bitter dispute over claims to some uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. The dispute is actually about the natural gas resources in the East China Sea. In 1995 China discovered an undersea natural gas field which is estimated to hold reserves of 364 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The dispute has had a detrimental effect on Japan's economy. The Financial Times (22 November) wrote ‘the spat over a chain of islands in the East China Sea has deepened Japan's export-led downturn, potentially dragging the world's third largest economy into a technical recession.’ Citi estimates a 6 percent fall in export volumes in October 2012.
It is widely acknowledged that China will overtake the USA as the world's largest economy in the next few years. The USA has a 'security guarantee' with Japan which would put it in opposition to China over the East China Sea. Earlier this year President Obama announced a strategic 'rebalancing'; the Pivot to East Asia which militarily means America will deploy 60 percent of its Navy to the Asian Pacific region, and economically through the Trans Pacific Partnership aims to dismantle existing trade barriers.
The Financial Times (19 November) pointed out that ‘The US gets barely a tenth of its imported oil from the Middle East and that is set to shrink to zero by the time Mr Obama leaves office. China, on the other hand, gets half its oil from there, which will rise to three-quarters by 2020.’ It is acknowledged that the USA would like China to share the security burden in the Middle East region. Could China also get involved in war over resources in the Middle East?
Steve Clayton
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