Disasters are rising

The number of weather-related disasters reported each year in the world's poorest countries has more than trebled since the 1980s and the increase cannot be explained by better reporting or an increase in population, a study by Oxfam has found.

A previous report in 2009 by Oxfam found that in a typical year, some 250 million people worldwide are affected in some way by natural disasters and the vast majority, something like 98 per cent, are the result of weather-related phenomena. By 2015, the charity estimates that more than 375 million people could be affected each year.

It is easy to speak of natural calamities. But there is nothing natural about the way that a billion people in the world cling in this way to the extremity of existence.

"But there is nothing natural about poor people being on climate's front line," Dr Jennings said. "Poverty, poor governance, patchy investment in the preparation and prevention of disasters all stack the odds against the most vulnerable. The future is going to be very bleak for millions of poor people without a shake-up of the ways we prepare and respond to disasters, and without real progress on reducing poverty and addressing climate change."

Being poor means having very little control over your own existence. The decisions which govern the lives of the really poor are made by other people. The moneylender, the employer, the multinational company, the government, foreign governments, the international finance bodies – all often have more say than do the poor themselves. The weather – drought, flood, hurricanes and storms – is just for many the final straw.

It goes without saying that major disasters causing loss of life are always tragic. But while some disasters cannot always be avoided others are completely avoidable and there can be no excuse. It would hardly be controversial to argue that capitalism, with its emphasis on profit and short-term considerations, means that any disasters which do happen are likely to be more serious and harmful than would otherwise be the case.The real reason earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes and floods kill so many people is that they live in known danger zones. In capitalism it is a question of livelihood and property, either or both of which prevent people moving. There is no way at present to predict population demographics in socialism, yet it must be obvious that nobody would choose to live next to a ticking timebomb, and given the freedom of movement implied by the abolition of land ownership we would expect the largest contribution to saving lives to come from populations spontaneously shifting away from high-risk areas. A massive mobilisation of people to other regions would be inconceivable today but not necessarily in socialism. Saving lives could become a new "un-armed forces" raison d’être. Bodies of fit, well-trained, well-resourced, motivated men and women available to deal with the effects of natural disasters and unexpected calamities would be one of a number of ways to deploy the willing volunteers, a civil action force for true humanitarian intervention.