Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The Changing of the Red Guard


The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) gets underway.

The constitution of the Communist Party of China (CPC) lays emphasis on the principle of "collective leadership," whereby senior officials of the party take decisions collectively. In practice, this collective consists of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. The Standing Committee represents the apex of political power in China.  In CPC's internal language, this collective is currently the "party central office with comrade Xi Jinping at its core." But since the start of the year, the word doing the rounds in the party has been only "Xi core," without any mention of the party central office. China's official Xinhua news agency recently reported that the party's constitution could be changed at the upcoming congress. It is speculated that the principle of collective leadership could be scrapped to allow Xi to become chairman of the CPC.
There has even been a change in the way Chinese soldiers greet Xi. When the Chinese leader visited a People's Liberations Army (PLA) garrison in Hong Kong in June and then on the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the founding of the PLA in July, troops broke with a tradition dating back over 30 years to offer a more personalized welcome to Xi. Instead of shouting "Greetings, commander," as would be the usual case at official inspections, PLA troops roared "Greetings, chairman," referring to Xi's position as head of the all-powerful Central Military Commission (CMC). While Xi is chairman of the CMC, the soldiers' greeting could also point to his potential new role as chairman of the CPC. From 1945 to the 12th CPC congress in 1982, the party constitution stipulated the position of a "Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China." As party chairman, Xi would no longer be the "first among equals." Instead, he would have even more authority in the seven-member Standing Committee of the Political Bureau.
Any move by Xi to install himself as chairman could fail due to opposition from sections of the CPC, especially from the older generation. Still, there are other ways for Xi to tighten his grip on power in the long run. This could be done, for instance, by reducing the number of seats on the Standing Committee from the current seven to five. It is likely that five of the seven members currently serving on the committee will have to retire at the convention for reasons of age. And up to 12 of the wider Politburo's 25 seats, as well as nearly half of the spots on the 205-member Central Committee, are also up for grabs. This gives Xi the opportunity to pack these bodies with his loyalists and augment his power. Some of the top favorites up for promotion to the Standing Committee are relatively young and could, therefore, remain in their posts beyond the next congress in 2022.
"Xi will install his loyalists and trusted allies in the politburo even if they are not high-ranking party officials," China expert Zhang Lifan told DW, adding that the "decisions in this respect have been taken.”
 54-year-old Hu Chunhua, party secretary of the economically strong southern province of Guangdong and thus automatically a member of the Politburo. He has experience managing unrest-prone regions like Tibet and Inner Mongolia.
Li Shulei, 53, is another official expected to be promoted. Li was Xi's speechwriter when the latter served as head of the elite Central Party School that trains the CCP's cadres. Li is a major ally of Xi in his anti-corruption campaign, which has ousted over 250 senior officials from the CPC and the military as well as placed up to two million lower-level officials under investigation.
 57-year-old Chen Miner, who has been party secretary of the central city of Chongqing since July.
 69-year-old Wang Qishan, Xi's anticorruption tzar who chairs the CPC's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. In this capacity, he oversaw, among other things, the proceedings against former senior officials like Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai, who were ousted from the party and jailed for life following conviction on corruption and other charges. Although the rule book says Wang will have to leave, it is possible that Xi would find a spot in the highest political body for his loyal ally and protect him from the numerous enemies he has made through his anti-corruption work. Some even speculate that Wang could get the post of premier if he advances from number 6 to 2 in the hierarchy on the Standing Committee.

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